{"id": 0, "found": true, "url_used": "https://web.archive.org/web/2002id_/http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2002/fcst2002/", "primary_ns": 13, "primary_h": 8, "primary_mh": 4, "primary_ace": null, "issued_primary": "7 December 2001", "stated_uncertainty": "no count uncertainty; text says early-December forecasts 'have not shown operational forecast skill' (1993-2001); landfall probabilities given", "match": "yes", "season_window": "June-November (stated: 'December to June-November' forecast)", "note": "NTC 140 given, no ACE. Archive PDF 2000s/2001-12.pdf is a scanned image (no text layer); used Wayback HTML of cited URL."}
{"id": 1, "found": true, "url_used": "https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastMar2005.pdf", "primary_ns": 14.0, "primary_h": 7.9, "primary_mh": 3.6, "primary_ace": 156, "issued_primary": "7th March 2005", "stated_uncertainty": "TSR Forecast (±FE): NS ±3.2, H ±2.3, MH ±1.6, ACE ±52; forecast skill 1985-2004: 14%/20%/21%/25% (NS/H/MH/ACE); 80% prob ACE upper tercile", "match": "yes", "season_window": "1 June-30 November 2005", "note": "No cited URL; found via TSR filename pattern."}
{"id": 2, "found": true, "url_used": "https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastJun2005.pdf", "primary_ns": 13.8, "primary_h": 7.8, "primary_mh": 3.5, "primary_ace": 159, "issued_primary": "7th June 2005", "stated_uncertainty": "±FE: NS ±2.2, H ±1.9, MH ±1.4, ACE ±42; skill 39%/31%/25%/35%; 86% prob ACE upper tercile", "match": "yes", "season_window": "1 June-30 November 2005", "note": ""}
{"id": 3, "found": true, "url_used": "https://web.archive.org/web/2005id_/http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005/oct2005/", "primary_ns": 20, "primary_h": 11, "primary_mh": 6, "primary_ace": null, "issued_primary": "as of 3 October 2005", "stated_uncertainty": "none stated for counts; only US/Caribbean major-hurricane landfall probabilities", "match": "yes (but cited URL is the 2 Sep 2005 update, which gives 20|10|6)", "season_window": "not stated (full season incl. observed activity)", "note": "Full Season Adjusted 3 Oct forecast = 20 NS/11 H/6 IH (NTC given, no ACE). Wikipedia cites sep2005 page whose full-season update was 20|10|6; values match the Oct 3 document, citation points to wrong issue."}
{"id": 4, "found": true, "url_used": "https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/Archived_Forecasts/2000s/2007-06.pdf", "primary_ns": 17, "primary_h": 9, "primary_mh": 5, "primary_ace": 170, "issued_primary": "as of 31 May 2007", "stated_uncertainty": "none stated for counts; only US/Caribbean major-hurricane landfall probabilities", "match": "yes", "season_window": "not stated", "note": ""}
{"id": 5, "found": true, "url_used": "https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastJul2008.pdf", "primary_ns": 14.6, "primary_h": 7.9, "primary_mh": 3.5, "primary_ace": 136, "issued_primary": "Issued: 4th July 2008", "stated_uncertainty": "±FE: NS ±3.4, H ±2.2, MH ±1.6, ACE ±48; skill 1988-2007 34%/41%/25%/43%; 67% prob ACE upper tercile", "match": "values yes; issue date differs (primary 4 Jul 2008, Wikipedia 2 Jul)", "season_window": "1st June-30th November 2008", "note": "PDF has no usable text layer; read from rendered page image."}
{"id": 6, "found": true, "url_used": "https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDec2010.pdf", "primary_ns": 13.9, "primary_h": 7.4, "primary_mh": 3.4, "primary_ace": 135, "issued_primary": "Issued: 7th December 2009", "stated_uncertainty": "±FE: NS ±4.9, H ±3.1, MH ±1.8, ACE ±59; skill 1980-2009 2%/1%/8%/11%; 62% prob ACE upper tercile", "match": "yes", "season_window": "1st June-30th November 2010", "note": ""}
{"id": 7, "found": true, "url_used": "https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/Archived_Forecasts/2010s/2010-04.pdf", "primary_ns": 15, "primary_h": 8, "primary_mh": 4, "primary_ace": 150, "issued_primary": "7 April 2010", "stated_uncertainty": "none stated for counts; only US/Caribbean major-hurricane landfall probabilities (Dec 2009 issue in same table gave ranges 11-16/6-8/3-5)", "match": "yes", "season_window": "not stated", "note": ""}
{"id": 8, "found": true, "url_used": "https://web.archive.org/web/2010id_/http://archive.wsi.com/f82917da-879b-46de-b957-5e5d7c608813/news-scheduled-forecast-archive-detail.htm", "primary_ns": 20, "primary_h": 11, "primary_mh": 5, "primary_ace": null, "issued_primary": "June 23, 2010", "stated_uncertainty": "none stated", "match": "yes", "season_window": "not stated", "note": "WSI press release (intense = cat 3+)."}
{"id": 9, "found": true, "url_used": "https://web.archive.org/web/2010id_/http://archive.wsi.com/2a3e38a5-aa1c-448b-ac48-3a51d0b84a6a/news-scheduled-forecast-archive-detail.htm", "primary_ns": 18, "primary_h": 10, "primary_mh": 6, "primary_ace": null, "issued_primary": "September 22, 2010", "stated_uncertainty": "none stated", "match": "yes", "season_window": "not stated", "note": "Final WSI update; season totals."}
{"id": 10, "found": true, "url_used": "https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastJun2011.pdf", "primary_ns": 14.1, "primary_h": 7.6, "primary_mh": 3.5, "primary_ace": 123, "issued_primary": "Issued: 6th June 2011", "stated_uncertainty": "±FE: NS ±3.4, H ±2.4, MH ±1.5, ACE ±48; skill 1980-2010 32%/33%/21%/37%; 55% prob ACE upper tercile", "match": "no: Wikipedia rounds 14.1|7.6|3.5 to 14|8|4", "season_window": "1st June-30th November 2011", "note": "PDF has no usable text layer; read from rendered page image."}
{"id": 11, "found": true, "url_used": "https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/Archived_Forecasts/2010s/2013-08.pdf", "primary_ns": 18, "primary_h": 8, "primary_mh": 3, "primary_ace": 142, "issued_primary": "as of 2 August 2013", "stated_uncertainty": "none stated for counts; only US/Caribbean major-hurricane landfall probabilities", "match": "yes", "season_window": "not stated (total seasonal = observed through July + forecast after 31 July)", "note": "Cited URL (media/sites/111/...) not tried; used CSU archive copy of same doc. Prior forecast was 18|9|4."}
{"id": 12, "found": true, "url_used": "https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/Archived_Forecasts/2010s/2015-06.pdf", "primary_ns": 8, "primary_h": 3, "primary_mh": 1, "primary_ace": 40, "issued_primary": "1 June 2015", "stated_uncertainty": "none stated for counts; only US/Caribbean major-hurricane landfall probabilities", "match": "yes", "season_window": "includes pre-June storms: NS raised 7->8 'due to the formation of Tropical Storm Ana in May'", "note": ""}
{"id": 13, "found": true, "url_used": "https://web.archive.org/web/2018id_/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/tropical-cyclones/seasonal/northatlantic2018", "primary_ns": 11, "primary_h": 6, "primary_mh": null, "primary_ace": 105, "issued_primary": "issued on 25 May 2018", "stated_uncertainty": "70% chance NS in range 7 to 15; H 4 to 8; ACE 55 to 155", "match": "yes (no MH forecast, matches N/A)", "season_window": "June-November 2018", "note": "No cited URL; Wayback capture is post-season page that restates the 25 May forecast."}
{"id": 14, "found": true, "url_used": "https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/Archived_Forecasts/2010s/2018-06.pdf", "primary_ns": 14, "primary_h": 6, "primary_mh": 2, "primary_ace": 90, "issued_primary": "as of 31 May 2018", "stated_uncertainty": "none stated for counts; only US/Caribbean major-hurricane landfall probabilities", "match": "yes", "season_window": "includes pre-June storms: 'Total Seasonal Forecast (Including Alberto*)'", "note": "No 2018-05.pdf exists; the 31 May issue is filed as 2018-06.pdf."}
{"id": 15, "found": true, "url_used": "https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDec2020.pdf", "primary_ns": 15, "primary_h": 7, "primary_mh": 4, "primary_ace": 105, "issued_primary": "Issued: 19th December 2019", "stated_uncertainty": "±FE: NS ±4, H ±3, MH ±3, ACE ±58; skill 1980-2019 2%/2%/0%/13%; 'forecast skill at this extended range is historically low'; 35% prob ACE upper tercile", "match": "yes", "season_window": "1st June-30th November 2020", "note": "File named for target year (Dec2020) though issued Dec 2019."}
{"id": 16, "found": true, "url_used": "https://web.archive.org/web/2020id_/http://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/ua_tropical_cyclone_forecast_in_april_2020.pdf", "primary_ns": 19, "primary_h": 10, "primary_mh": 5, "primary_ace": 163, "issued_primary": "13 April 2020", "stated_uncertainty": "ranges with hit rates 1993-2019: H 8-12 (70%), MH 4-6 (63%), NS 16-22 (66%), ACE 123-203 (52%); validation MAE skill vs 5-yr avg", "match": "yes", "season_window": "June 1 to November 30 (stated as season definition)", "note": "Cited URL now 404; Wayback copy."}
{"id": 17, "found": true, "url_used": "https://news.ncsu.edu/2020/04/2020-active-hurricane-season/", "primary_ns": "18-22", "primary_h": "8-11", "primary_mh": "3-5", "primary_ace": null, "issued_primary": "April 17, 2020", "stated_uncertainty": "ranges only (18 to 22 NS, 8 to 11 H, 3 to 5 MH); no probability attached", "match": "yes", "season_window": "not stated for forecast ('season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30' as background)", "note": "Also Gulf of Mexico sub-forecast 6-10/2-5/1-2."}
{"id": 18, "found": true, "url_used": "https://web.archive.org/web/2021id_/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/tropical-cyclones/seasonal/northatlantic2021may", "primary_ns": 14, "primary_h": 7, "primary_mh": 3, "primary_ace": 117, "issued_primary": "issued on 20 May 2021", "stated_uncertainty": "70% chance NS 9 to 19; H 4 to 10; MH 1 to 5; ACE 44 to 190", "match": "yes", "season_window": "June to November 2021 ('Ana formed in May outside the June-November forecast period, so is not included')", "note": "Live cited URL now redirects to Met Office Preservica archive asset (download not tried); Wayback capture used."}
{"id": 19, "found": true, "url_used": "https://news.ncsu.edu/2022/04/2022-active-hurricane-season/", "primary_ns": "17-21", "primary_h": "7-9", "primary_mh": "3-5", "primary_ace": null, "issued_primary": "April 20, 2022", "stated_uncertainty": "ranges only (17 to 21 NS, 7 to 9 H, 3 to 5 MH)", "match": "yes", "season_window": "not stated for forecast (season June 1-Nov. 30 as background)", "note": "Gulf sub-forecast 3-6/2-5/1-2."}
{"id": 20, "found": true, "url_used": "https://web.archive.org/web/2022id_/https://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2022_june_ua_hurricane_prediction.docx", "primary_ns": 15, "primary_h": 7, "primary_mh": 3, "primary_ace": 131, "issued_primary": "6/20/2022", "stated_uncertainty": "70% probability range: NS 12 to 18, H 5 to 9, MH 2 to 4, ACE 92 to 170; past avg errors (H 1.9, MH 0.4, ACE 30.0, NS 5.7)", "match": "yes", "season_window": "not stated", "note": "Cited page 404 live; Wayback page links to June 2022 docx (used)."}
{"id": 21, "found": true, "url_used": "https://web.archive.org/web/2023id_/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/tropical-cyclones/seasonal/northatlantic2023", "primary_ns": 19, "primary_h": 9, "primary_mh": 6, "primary_ace": 215, "issued_primary": "issued on 01 August 2023", "stated_uncertainty": "70% chance NS 14 to 24; H 6 to 12; MH 3 to 9; ACE 120 to 310", "match": "yes", "season_window": "February 2023-January 2024 (observed Feb-Jul + GloSea6 forecast Aug-Jan); excludes January 2023 unnamed subtropical storm", "note": "Cited URL now 404; Wayback capture. Supersedes May 2023 pre-season forecast."}
{"id": 22, "found": true, "url_used": "https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastAugust2023.pdf", "primary_ns": 18, "primary_h": 8, "primary_mh": 3, "primary_ace": 140, "issued_primary": "Issued: 8th August 2023", "stated_uncertainty": "no ± given; forecast skill 2003-2022: NS 63%, H 48%, MH 40%, ACE 33%; 'Uncertainty is higher than normal at this lead time'; ACE terciles 33/54/13%", "match": "yes", "season_window": "not stated in grepped text", "note": ""}
{"id": 23, "found": true, "url_used": "https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-04-16-hurricane-season-outlook-twc-april", "primary_ns": 19, "primary_h": 9, "primary_mh": 4, "primary_ace": null, "issued_primary": "'released Thursday' (article datePublished 2025-04-16)", "stated_uncertainty": "none stated", "match": "yes", "season_window": "not stated", "note": "TWC/Atmospheric G2 outlook. Page metadata also shows a 2025-12-04 update. Thursday = 17 Apr 2025, consistent with Wikipedia date."}