{"row": 3, "citation": "Kane (2007b)", "karak_value_str": "119±7.5", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-007-9059-6 (abstract, via web search rendering; Springer page blocked to curl)", "source_checked": "abstract", "issued_date": "2007-11", "date_basis": "published online (Crossref published-online 2007-11-07)", "value_stated": "119 (mean); range 112-127", "err_plus": "", "err_minus": "", "other_forecasts": "Rz(max) 112-127 (mean 119) for cycle 25 in 2022-2023, from 3 series (1876-1986, 1886-1996, 1896-2006) MEM+regression; also cycle 24 80-101 (mean 92), cycle 26 115-120, cycle 27 100-113. Headline: mean 119.", "err_meaning": "range_of_models", "err_quote": "112 – 127 (mean 119) for cycle 25 during years 2022 – 2023", "sn_version": "v1", "sn_evidence": "2007 paper using annual Rz (Zurich/International SN v1, pre-2015)", "smoothing": "yearly_mean", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "Karak's ±7.5 is half the 112-127 range across the 3 data-series reconstructions, not a statistical error; v1 yearly values not rescaled", "notes": "Full text paywalled; abstract seen only through search-engine rendering of Springer page. Range is spread of 3 overlapping-window extrapolations."}
{"row": 18, "citation": "Hathaway and Upton (2016)", "karak_value_str": "98.9±42", "url": "arXiv:1611.05106 source (cached /work/solar-cycle/lit/.cache/hu16.tex) + Crossref abstract 10.1002/2016JA023190", "source_checked": "fulltext", "issued_date": "2016-11", "date_basis": "arXiv v1 (2016-11-16)", "value_stated": "none (no sunspot-number amplitude given)", "err_plus": "", "err_minus": "", "other_forecasts": "Only qualitative: 'Cycle 25 will be similar in size to (or slightly smaller than) the current small cycle, Cycle 24'. Quantities given are axial dipole at start of C25 +1.36±0.20 G and polar field 2.5±0.5 G; ~15% accumulated uncertainty. No SN number anywhere in text.", "err_meaning": "other", "err_quote": "The average of all 32 realizations gives the axial dipole strength at the start of Cycle 25 as $+1.36 \\pm 0.20$ G", "sn_version": "unstated", "sn_evidence": "no sunspot-number forecast in paper", "smoothing": "unstated", "matches_karak": "no", "diff": "98.9 and ±42 do not appear in the paper; the paper gives no numeric SN forecast. Karak's number must come from a secondary compilation or a later paper (e.g. Upton & Hathaway 2018 gave a numeric SN).", "notes": "Checked arXiv TeX for '98', '42', 'sunspot number', '\\pm'; only dipole/polar-field values with ±."}
{"row": 28, "citation": "Jiang et al. (2018)", "karak_value_str": "124±31", "url": "arXiv:1807.01543 source (cached /work/solar-cycle/lit/.cache/j18.tex)", "source_checked": "fulltext", "issued_date": "2018-07", "date_basis": "arXiv v1 (2018-07-04; already accepted to ApJ)", "value_stated": "abstract: range 93-155 (95%); body/Fig caption: 125±32", "err_plus": "32 (body) / range to 155 (abstract)", "err_minus": "32 (body) / range to 93 (abstract)", "other_forecasts": "Single forecast (from CR2198, end-2017 initial condition). Body: 'expected maximum amplitude of cycle 25 is 125 ... The 2σ range is 32'; abstract: 'range from 93 to 155 with a probability of 95%'. Headline = abstract range.", "err_meaning": "2sigma", "err_quote": "The expected maximum amplitude of cycle 25 is 125 ... The 2$\\sigma$ range is 32, which means that the possibility of the amplitude of cycle 25 above 93 is 95.4\\%", "sn_version": "v2", "sn_evidence": "'have used the Sunspot Number Version 2.0' (SILSO)", "smoothing": "13mo_smoothed", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "Karak's 124±31 = midpoint/half-width of abstract range 93-155; body states 125±32. Error is 2σ (95%), not 1σ. Minor 1-unit value difference.", "notes": "Wording oddity: paper equates 'above 93' (one-sided) with 95.4%."}
{"row": 33, "citation": "Sarp et al. (2018)", "karak_value_str": "154±12", "url": "https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.1093/mnras/sty2470 (abstract); OUP page bot-blocked; no arXiv preprint found", "source_checked": "abstract", "issued_date": "2018-09", "date_basis": "published online (Crossref 2018-09-10)", "value_stated": "154", "err_plus": "12", "err_minus": "12", "other_forecasts": "Also timing 2023.2±1.1. Only one amplitude in abstract.", "err_meaning": "unstated", "err_quote": "a peak sunspot number of 154 ± 12.", "sn_version": "unstated", "sn_evidence": "abstract does not say; full text not accessible", "smoothing": "unstated", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "", "notes": "OpenAlex marks closed access, no repository copy."}
{"row": 42, "citation": "Dani and Sulistiani (2019)", "karak_value_str": "159.4±22.3", "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1742-6596/1231/1/012022/pdf", "source_checked": "fulltext", "issued_date": "2019-06", "date_basis": "published online (Crossref created 2019-06-26; conference proceedings)", "value_stated": "159.4", "err_plus": "22.3", "err_minus": "22.3", "other_forecasts": "Four ML methods, no single headline: LR 159.4±22.3 (Sep 2023); RF 110.2±12.8 (Dec 2024; first peak 103±12.8); RBF 95.5±21.9 (Dec 2024); SVM 93.7±23.2 (Jul 2024). LR listed first in abstract; authors say RF best reproduces double peak. Karak picked LR (highest; 3 of 4 methods are 94-110).", "err_meaning": "rmse_or_std_of_residuals", "err_quote": "The root means squared error for this prediction is 22.3.", "sn_version": "v2", "sn_evidence": "SILSO monthly mean total sunspot number through May 2018 (post-2015 SILSO = v2)", "smoothing": "monthly", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "Values match the LR entry, but Karak selects one of four equally-presented methods (the highest); error is RMSE of the fit, not a forecast interval.", "notes": "Peak taken from monthly-mean predictions, not 13-month smoothed."}
{"row": 56, "citation": "Benson et al. (2020)", "karak_value_str": "107.2±19.75", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12406 (cached /work/solar-cycle/lit/raw/2005.12406.txt)", "source_checked": "fulltext", "issued_date": "2020-05", "date_basis": "published online 2020-05 (received 2020-03-23, accepted 2020-05-19; arXiv v1 2020-05-25)", "value_stated": "106", "err_plus": "19.75", "err_minus": "19.75", "other_forecasts": "Single SN forecast from WaveNet+LSTM: 106±19.75, peak March 2025; also total sunspot area 1771±381.17 (May 2025).", "err_meaning": "other", "err_quote": "maximum sunspot number around 106 ± 19.75 ... Using the mean average error we determine that the uncertainty in predictions is 8% for the sunspot number dataset", "sn_version": "v2", "sn_evidence": "SILSO World Data Center 2019, monthly averaged SN 1749-2019 (3251 records)", "smoothing": "monthly", "matches_karak": "no", "diff": "Value: paper says 106 (abstract, body, conclusions), Karak lists 107.2. Error ±19.75 matches. Origin of ±19.75 is not explained (test RMSE 2.93; '8% uncertainty' = ~8.5).", "notes": "arXiv text is the accepted SoPh manuscript (dated 27 May 2020); journal version not checked but unlikely to differ."}
{"row": 68, "citation": "Velasco Herrera et al. (2021)", "karak_value_str": "95±15", "url": "https://api.semanticscholar.org/graph/v1/paper/DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2021.03.023 (abstract); closed access, no arXiv", "source_checked": "abstract", "issued_date": "2021-03", "date_basis": "published online (2021-03-30)", "value_stated": "95", "err_plus": "20", "err_minus": "15", "other_forecasts": "Single amplitude: peak annual SSN 95, probable range 80-115, between 2023 and 2025.", "err_meaning": "other", "err_quote": "Our ML Bayesian model forecasts a peak annual sunspot number (SSN) of 95 with a probable range of 80 to 115 for Cycle 25", "sn_version": "v2", "sn_evidence": "'annual sunspot time series (1700-2019; Version 2.0)'", "smoothing": "yearly_mean", "matches_karak": "no", "diff": "Range is asymmetric 80-115 (+20/-15); Karak symmetrized to ±15, dropping the upper +20. Probability level of 'probable range' unstated in abstract. Also annual-mean SSN (yearly), which runs below 13-mo smoothed max.", "notes": "Full text paywalled (Elsevier)."}
{"row": 71, "citation": "Burud et al. (2021)", "karak_value_str": "104.23±17.35", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2105.11448 (v2)", "source_checked": "fulltext", "issued_date": "2021-05", "date_basis": "arXiv v1 (2021-05-24)", "value_stated": "104.23", "err_plus": "17.35", "err_minus": "17.35", "other_forecasts": "Two precursors: spotless days (SLD) 99.13±14.97 and aa index 104.23±17.35. SLD is the headline ('Our predicted amplitude of sunspot number 99.13 ± 14.97 for cycle 25'); aa presented as confirming. Karak took the aa value.", "err_meaning": "unstated", "err_quote": "(Rmax)n+1 = 3.4 ∗ 10−4 ∗ (∑aan)dsc + 16.96) ± 17.35 (2)", "sn_version": "v2", "sn_evidence": "SILSO data 1818-2020, 'recently been published' (V2), cites Petrovay 2020", "smoothing": "13mo_smoothed", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "Numbers match the aa-index forecast, but paper's emphasized/headline value is the SLD one (99.13±14.97). Error is ± attached to regression equation (likely regression scatter), not defined.", "notes": "Paper calls it '13 month smoothed maximum annual mean sunspot number' (confused wording; data are 13-mo smoothed monthly)."}
{"row": 83, "citation": "Ahluwalia (2022)", "karak_value_str": "126.7±4.7", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0273117721007584 (403 to curl/WebFetch; content seen only via web-search rendering of ADS abstract/full text)", "source_checked": "abstract", "issued_date": "2021-10", "date_basis": "published online (Crossref created 2021-10-08)", "value_stated": "126.7", "err_plus": "4.7", "err_minus": "4.7", "other_forecasts": "Single amplitude; peak timing Feb 2024 ± 6 months. Regression SSN Ampl = 15.6*Ap + 49.7 over cycles 17-24, with 2020 yearly Ap 5.0±0.3.", "err_meaning": "1sigma", "err_quote": "SC25 Rmax = 126.7 ± 4.7; ± 1σ represents propagated error (as rendered by search engine; not read directly)", "sn_version": "unstated", "sn_evidence": "not seen; yearly SSN used; 2021 paper so SILSO v2 likely but not confirmed", "smoothing": "yearly_mean", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "Value/error match. Error is propagated 1σ of the Ap input only (excludes regression scatter), hence tiny.", "notes": "Bronze OA per OpenAlex but ScienceDirect blocks automated fetch; details (1σ, yearly) come from search-engine summary, treat as unverified."}
{"row": 91, "citation": "Prasad et al. (2022)", "karak_value_str": "171.9±3.4", "url": "https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022AdSpR..69..798P/abstract (only via web-search rendering; ADS/ScienceDirect block automated fetch; no arXiv preprint)", "source_checked": "abstract", "issued_date": "2021-11", "date_basis": "published online (Crossref created 2021-11-19)", "value_stated": "171.9 (per citing papers; not read in primary)", "err_plus": "3.4", "err_minus": "3.4", "other_forecasts": "Stacked LSTM; peak ~Aug 2023 ± 2 months (per citing papers). Authors' 2023 SoPh follow-up revised to 136.9.", "err_meaning": "unstated", "err_quote": "", "sn_version": "v2", "sn_evidence": "abstract (search rendering): 'monthly smoothed sunspot number data obtained from WDC-SILSO' (2021 => V2)", "smoothing": "13mo_smoothed", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "Value/error consistent with multiple citing papers ('171.9 ± 3.4 in around August 2023 ± 2 months'); primary text not accessed so meaning of ±3.4 unknown.", "notes": "Bronze OA per Semantic Scholar but ScienceDirect returns 403. Low-confidence verification."}
{"row": 96, "citation": "Chowdhury et al. (2022)", "karak_value_str": "160.29±66.06", "url": "https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.1093/mnras/stac1162 (abstract); OUP full text closed/bot-blocked; no arXiv", "source_checked": "abstract", "issued_date": "2022-04", "date_basis": "published online (OpenAlex 2022-04-29; OUP issue 2022-05/07)", "value_stated": "none in abstract (abstract gives sunspot AREA only)", "err_plus": "", "err_minus": "", "other_forecasts": "Abstract: whole-disc sunspot area max 1606.49 ± 412.78 msh (~2025 March); N 731.39 ± 192.7, S 764.89 ± 195.39 msh. Any SN conversion (160.29±66.06) would be in body, not accessible.", "err_meaning": "unstated", "err_quote": "1606.49 ± 412.78 millionths of the solar hemispheric area", "sn_version": "unstated", "sn_evidence": "paper predicts sunspot area (RGO/USAF-NOAA), SN not in abstract", "smoothing": "unstated", "matches_karak": "unverified", "diff": "Could not see the SN value. Paper's primary forecast is sunspot AREA, not SN; 160.29 may be a body-text area->SN conversion. Note 160.29 coincidentally ~ 1606.49/10. Treat as unverified.", "notes": "Wider issue: entry's quantity is a converted area forecast; error ±66.06 is ~41% of value."}
{"row": 101, "citation": "Obridko et al. (2023)", "karak_value_str": "125.2±5.6", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.05725", "source_checked": "fulltext", "issued_date": "2023-07", "date_basis": "journal issue date (Astron. Tsirkulyar 1658, 2 July 2023); arXiv v1 2023-07-11", "value_stated": "125.2", "err_plus": "5.6", "err_minus": "5.6", "other_forecasts": "Single amplitude from polar-field regression SSNmax = 36.405 + 1.3666 Bpol (Bpol=65 µT, WSO 2019). Max date end of 2023/early 2024 (from abstract).", "err_meaning": "unstated", "err_quote": "the predicted value of SSN in Cycle 25 is 125.2 ± 5.6", "sn_version": "v2", "sn_evidence": "Cycle 24 max quoted as 116.4 (v2 13-mo smoothed value)", "smoothing": "13mo_smoothed", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "", "notes": "Regression fit on only 3 cycles (22-24); ±5.6 undefined. Method is polar-field precursor, not an 'extended solar cycle model' as Karak's method column says. Issued mid-2023, i.e. well into the rising phase."}
{"row": 111, "citation": "Pishkalo and Vasiljeva (2023)", "karak_value_str": "136±36", "url": "https://api.openalex.org/works/doi:10.3103/S0884591323040062 (abstract); closed access, no arXiv", "source_checked": "abstract", "issued_date": "2023-08", "date_basis": "published online (OpenAlex 2023-08-01; English translation journal)", "value_stated": "136", "err_plus": "36", "err_minus": "36", "other_forecasts": "155.6±42.4 (Aug 2024; C24 power precursor); 172.1±46.5 (Jun 2024; C24 amplitude precursor); hemispheres N 86.9±41.1, S 91.7±29.7; headline 'most probable' 136±36 (Feb 2025) from power of first 30 months of C25.", "err_meaning": "unstated", "err_quote": "the most probable forecast of the maximum of solar cycle 25 for today, i.e., 136 ± 36 for February 2025", "sn_version": "unstated", "sn_evidence": "abstract does not specify; monthly SN sums; 2023 paper (likely v2)", "smoothing": "unstated", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "Matches the authors' headline. Note the headline uses the first 30 months of C25 (data to ~mid-2022), so it is an in-cycle forecast; the two pre-cycle precursor forecasts (155.6±42.4, 172.1±46.5) are not the one listed.", "notes": "Title says 'Total Power at the Cycle's Beginning and in the Previous Cycle as Precursor'."}
{"row": 123, "citation": "Kumar (2024)", "karak_value_str": "127.16±6.83", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-024-02389-6 (abstract via web-search rendering; Springer blocks curl; closed access)", "source_checked": "abstract", "issued_date": "2024-06", "date_basis": "received 2024-06-13 (published online 2024-10-23)", "value_stated": "127.16", "err_plus": "6.83", "err_minus": "6.83", "other_forecasts": "SC25: 127.16 (± 6.83) in 2025; SC26: 191.71 (± 43.37) in 2035. Models run on daily, monthly, monthly-mean and yearly SSN; which dataset gives the headline not seen.", "err_meaning": "unstated", "err_quote": "SC25: 127.16 (± 6.83) in 2025", "sn_version": "unstated", "sn_evidence": "abstract does not say (2024 SILSO data would be v2)", "smoothing": "unstated", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "Value/error match. Identity: Karak 'Kumar (2024)' = Kumar V (2024) SoPh 299:147 (vD2R2w), not Kumar P et al. 2024.", "notes": "Received June 2024, when observed SN already far exceeded 127 (yearly 2024 mean ~155), and peak placed in 2025: not a genuine advance forecast; timing 'in 2025' suggests yearly resolution."}
{"row": 132, "citation": "Jaswal et al. (2024)", "karak_value_str": "116.91±2.89", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.00520 (v2)", "source_checked": "fulltext", "issued_date": "2023-07", "date_basis": "arXiv v1 (2023-07-02)", "value_stated": "116.91", "err_plus": "2.89", "err_minus": "2.89", "other_forecasts": "Amplitude 116.91±2.89 from regression of SC amplitude on preceding |dipole| cycle amplitude (WSO, cycles 22-24); rise rate 28.5±4.7 SN/yr; peak time 2024.00 +0.68/-0.49 (the paper's headline is timing).", "err_meaning": "rmse_or_std_of_residuals", "err_quote": "The error bar represents the typical magnitude of RMSE associated with the regression model and assuming there are no other statistical uncertainties.", "sn_version": "v2", "sn_evidence": "WDC-SILSO total sunspot number (sidc.be/SILSO/datafiles), 2023", "smoothing": "13mo_smoothed", "matches_karak": "yes", "diff": "", "notes": "Issued July 2023 (well into rise phase). Regression on ~3 cycles; RMSE only, so ±2.89 is very tight."}