initial forecasts (<=1 h): 204 mainshocks
series,p_lo,p_hi,n,events,meanP,obs,ci05,ci95
all versions,0,0.01,133902,250,0.0009,0.0008,0.0005,0.0012
all versions,0.01,0.03,9387,234,0.0177,0.019,0.0133,0.0254
all versions,0.03,0.1,7540,214,0.0563,0.0481,0.0362,0.0599
all versions,0.1,0.3,4282,177,0.1759,0.1539,0.1234,0.1841
all versions,0.3,0.6,1888,119,0.4219,0.3453,0.2814,0.4038
all versions,0.6,1,1213,46,0.8302,0.7205,0.6184,0.7864
initial forecast,0,0.01,1140,203,0.0024,0.0,0.0,0.0
initial forecast,0.01,0.03,269,157,0.0174,0.0074,0.0,0.0224
initial forecast,0.03,0.1,386,188,0.0594,0.0207,0.0053,0.0397
initial forecast,0.1,0.3,296,152,0.1838,0.1216,0.0787,0.1684
initial forecast,0.3,0.6,194,99,0.4167,0.2526,0.1828,0.3247
initial forecast,0.6,1,71,26,0.7854,0.5493,0.3833,0.7

group,issue_lag,n,events,expected,observed,obs_over_exp,ci05,ci95
all,initial (<=1 h),2356,204,221.2912,134,0.6055,0.467,0.7429
all,1-2 h,5526,199,513.9868,343,0.6673,0.5246,0.8051
all,2 h-1 d,11709,211,737.3312,605,0.8205,0.6739,0.9737
all,1-7 d,14557,209,586.2881,476,0.8119,0.6261,0.9808
all,7-30 d,30823,228,647.7605,594,0.917,0.73,1.0821
all,>30 d,93241,233,561.6441,683,1.2161,1.0046,1.4494
shallow (<70 km),initial (<=1 h),2114,179,198.8966,134,0.6737,0.5305,0.8149
shallow (<70 km),1-2 h,4931,175,462.734,343,0.7412,0.5893,0.8902
shallow (<70 km),2 h-1 d,10461,185,687.9185,605,0.8795,0.7207,1.0391
shallow (<70 km),1-7 d,13129,183,567.4219,476,0.8389,0.6602,1.0202
shallow (<70 km),7-30 d,27835,201,630.2743,587,0.9313,0.7346,1.1172
shallow (<70 km),>30 d,83072,207,551.7335,678,1.2289,1.0158,1.4795
deep (>=70 km),initial (<=1 h),242,25,22.3946,0,0.0,0.0,0.0
deep (>=70 km),1-2 h,595,24,51.2528,0,0.0,0.0,0.0
deep (>=70 km),2 h-1 d,1248,26,49.4127,0,0.0,0.0,0.0
deep (>=70 km),1-7 d,1428,26,18.8661,0,0.0,0.0,0.0
deep (>=70 km),7-30 d,2988,27,17.4862,7,0.4003,0.0,1.1943
deep (>=70 km),>30 d,10169,26,9.9106,5,0.5045,0.0,1.31

panel,group,n,events,expected,observed,obs_over_exp,ci05,ci95
magnitude,M3+,113,38,50.9512,53,1.0402,0.777,1.3383
magnitude,M4+,455,154,113.6496,58,0.5103,0.3629,0.6712
magnitude,M5+,594,203,47.6989,21,0.4403,0.225,0.6641
magnitude,M6+,597,204,8.0254,2,0.2492,0.0,0.585
region,CONUS+HI,1127,87,84.4316,73,0.8646,0.6346,1.092
region,Alaska,761,65,114.3115,58,0.5074,0.3351,0.6908
region,Marianas/Guam,375,44,14.852,0,0.0,0.0,0.0
region,Non-US,93,8,7.6962,3,0.3898,0.0,1.1077
region,deep (>=70 km),242,25,22.3946,0,0.0,0.0,0.0
region,all shallow (<70 km),2114,179,198.8966,134,0.6737,0.5335,0.8236

window,reference,n,events,brier_skill,ci05,ci95
1 Day,"generic model, not updated",47992,206,0.1062,0.0567,0.1554
1 Day,background rate,47992,206,0.3018,0.1924,0.379
1 Week,"generic model, not updated",47356,203,0.1496,0.0906,0.213
1 Week,background rate,47356,203,0.2674,0.1425,0.3555
1 Month,"generic model, not updated",45209,194,0.1665,0.1017,0.2289
1 Month,background rate,45209,194,0.2167,0.0929,0.3118
1 Year,"generic model, not updated",15962,94,0.1695,0.0624,0.2826
1 Year,background rate,15962,94,0.0055,-0.4019,0.2996