baseline n=158212 ev=250 sumP= 3268.3 sumY= 2835 obs/exp=0.87 [0.75,0.97] first version only, 1 Day n= 992 ev=250 sumP= 69.3 sumY= 39 obs/exp=0.56 [0.42,0.72] first version only, 1 Week n= 982 ev=247 sumP= 92.8 sumY= 57 obs/exp=0.61 [0.48,0.76] first version only, 1 Month n= 934 ev=234 sumP= 105.7 sumY= 65 obs/exp=0.62 [0.50,0.75] first version only, 1 Year n= 447 ev=116 sumP= 62.3 sumY= 41 obs/exp=0.66 [0.52,0.79] version nearest day 1, 1 Week n= 801 ev=204 sumP= 42.1 sumY= 32 obs/exp=0.76 [0.56,0.96] version nearest day 1, 1 Month n= 768 ev=195 sumP= 55.5 sumY= 42 obs/exp=0.76 [0.58,0.93] version nearest day 7, 1 Week n= 800 ev=203 sumP= 22.0 sumY= 18 obs/exp=0.82 [0.54,1.10] version nearest day 7, 1 Month n= 768 ev=195 sumP= 37.6 sumY= 29 obs/exp=0.77 [0.57,0.97] drop top 5 mainshocks by sum P (nn00914068,us6000qw60,us6000rsy1...) n=154551 ev=245 sumP= 2573.3 sumY= 2022 obs/exp=0.79 [0.66,0.90] drop top 10 mainshocks by sum P n=150256 ev=240 sumP= 2125.9 sumY= 1543 obs/exp=0.73 [0.59,0.86] top 10 by sum P: [('us7000qd1y', 165.8, 203), ('us6000rsy1', 142.2, 124), ('us7000s211', 131.7, 187), ('us6000qw60', 129.5, 113), ('nn00914068', 125.9, 186), ('nc75095651', 100.3, 120), ('nn00888580', 96.9, 109), ('ci41162719', 96.5, 67), ('us7000pn9s', 80.0, 77), ('us7000nzf3', 73.6, 106)] mainshock M4-5 n= 59921 ev= 87 sumP= 668.0 sumY= 625 obs/exp=0.94 [0.69,1.22] mainshock M5-6 n= 80935 ev=133 sumP= 1275.5 sumY= 898 obs/exp=0.70 [0.49,0.89] mainshock M6-10 n= 13490 ev= 25 sumP= 1271.2 sumY= 1277 obs/exp=1.00 [0.84,1.13] mainshock year 2019 n= 430 ev= 1 sumP= 23.5 sumY= 33 obs/exp=1.40 [1.40,1.40] mainshock year 2020 n= 324 ev= 1 sumP= 11.9 sumY= 11 obs/exp=0.92 [0.92,0.92] mainshock year 2024 n= 24234 ev= 35 sumP= 397.2 sumY= 355 obs/exp=0.89 [0.47,1.09] mainshock year 2025 n= 92489 ev=117 sumP= 1498.7 sumY= 1285 obs/exp=0.86 [0.70,1.00] mainshock year 2026 n= 40735 ev= 96 sumP= 1336.8 sumY= 1151 obs/exp=0.86 [0.65,1.06] --- initial forecasts = first version, issued <= 1 h after the mainshock: 204 mainshocks initial, <=1mo, M>=3 n= 113 ev= 38 sumP= 51.0 sumY= 53 obs/exp=1.04 [0.77,1.35] initial, <=1mo, M>=4 n= 455 ev=154 sumP= 113.6 sumY= 58 obs/exp=0.51 [0.35,0.68] initial, <=1mo, M>=5 n= 594 ev=203 sumP= 47.7 sumY= 21 obs/exp=0.44 [0.24,0.67] initial, <=1mo, M>=6 n= 597 ev=204 sumP= 8.0 sumY= 2 obs/exp=0.25 [0.00,0.58] initial, <=1mo, CONUS+HI n= 1127 ev= 87 sumP= 84.4 sumY= 73 obs/exp=0.86 [0.63,1.11] initial, <=1mo, CONUS+HI, shallow <70 km n= 1127 ev= 87 sumP= 84.4 sumY= 73 obs/exp=0.86 [0.65,1.11] initial, <=1mo, Alaska n= 761 ev= 65 sumP= 114.3 sumY= 58 obs/exp=0.51 [0.33,0.70] initial, <=1mo, Alaska, shallow <70 km n= 645 ev= 55 sumP= 97.3 sumY= 58 obs/exp=0.60 [0.39,0.80] initial, <=1mo, Marianas/Guam n= 375 ev= 44 sumP= 14.9 sumY= 0 obs/exp=0.00 [0.00,0.00] initial, <=1mo, Marianas/Guam, shallow <70 km n= 249 ev= 29 sumP= 9.4 sumY= 0 obs/exp=0.00 [0.00,0.00] initial, <=1mo, Non-US n= 93 ev= 8 sumP= 7.7 sumY= 3 obs/exp=0.39 [0.00,1.12] initial, <=1mo, Non-US, shallow <70 km n= 93 ev= 8 sumP= 7.7 sumY= 3 obs/exp=0.39 [0.00,1.11] initial, <=1mo, deep >=70 km n= 242 ev= 25 sumP= 22.4 sumY= 0 obs/exp=0.00 [0.00,0.00] initial, <=1mo, shallow <70 km n= 2114 ev=179 sumP= 198.9 sumY= 134 obs/exp=0.67 [0.53,0.81] initial, <=1mo, shallow, excluding Marianas/Guam n= 1865 ev=150 sumP= 189.5 sumY= 134 obs/exp=0.71 [0.56,0.86] all versions, <=1mo, deep >=70 km n= 16670 ev= 29 sumP= 169.3 sumY= 12 obs/exp=0.07 [0.00,0.19] all versions, <=1mo, shallow, excl. Marianas/Guam n=122843 ev=188 sumP= 3012.9 sumY= 2823 obs/exp=0.94 [0.82,1.05] initial (<=1 h) only, 1 Day n= 803 ev=204 sumP= 58.4 sumY= 33 obs/exp=0.57 [0.41,0.72] initial (<=1 h) only, 1 Week n= 793 ev=201 sumP= 76.7 sumY= 47 obs/exp=0.61 [0.47,0.75] initial (<=1 h) only, 1 Month n= 760 ev=192 sumP= 86.2 sumY= 54 obs/exp=0.63 [0.48,0.76] initial, <=1mo, M>=4, shallow, excl. Marianas n= 426 ev=144 sumP= 101.0 sumY= 58 obs/exp=0.57 [0.41,0.75] initial, <=1mo, M>=5, shallow, excl. Marianas n= 440 ev=149 sumP= 31.2 sumY= 21 obs/exp=0.67 [0.36,0.98] first-version issue lag (min) quantiles 10/50/90: [10. 10. 10.1]